Freshmen to watch in the Big 12

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/26/2010 -

NORMAN, Okla. (AP) -If Bob Stoops had his way, the practice of redshirting incoming freshmen to save them for later would be scrapped at Oklahoma.

He'd rather have his freshmen contribute right away for the seventh-ranked Sooners.

``I believe that the quality of players we're getting, they're not going to be here for that fifth year,'' Stoops said. ``And they're better players in their second year, maybe when we need them more, having played even a little bit in their first year.''

Stoops' crop of first-year players this season have him keeping those redshirts in the closet more than ever.

Nickel back Tony Jefferson, cornerback Aaron Colvin and linebacker Corey Nelson could all get playing time on defense, and Kenny Stills leads a trio of receivers trying to break into the rotation. Trey Millard made such an impact in his first few weeks of practice that he's set to start at fullback.

``I've been saying it over and over, this is a really good class and these guys are really good players,'' Stoop said.

The Sooners aren't the only ones with freshmen who could make an immediate impact. Here are some Big 12 freshmen to watch:

Mike Davis, WR, Texas: Does Longhorns coach Mack Brown need to say much more than this about the Dallas native? ``Mike is a very confident young man. When he walks in the room he knows he's good.'' He's among a higher number of freshmen Brown plans to play this season coming off of a loss in the BCS championship game, including defensive linemen Reggie Wilson and Jackson Jeffcoat, the son of ex-Dallas Cowboys defensive end Jim Jeffcoat.

Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: Coach Mike Gundy first noticed the speedy Huntsville, Texas, native toward the end of his sophomore year in high school, then got an early commitment and anxiously waited to get him signed. ``His highlight tape went on for about an hour,'' Gundy recalls. He's already had an 80-yard punt return TD in a preseason scrimmage.

Jake Matthews, OL, Texas A&M: The son of NFL Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews certainly has the pedigree to be a force and he's been practicing with the Aggies' starters in his first training camp. ``He's a very talented young man who works really hard. He's a tough kid and very physical,'' coach Mike Sherman said. He started high school as a quarterback but moved up front now that he's 6-foot-5 and 295 pounds. His brother, Kevin, was A&M's starting center the past two seasons.

Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado: Richardson initially signed with UCLA, where his father played receiver, before being dismissed along with two other players after they were accused of stealing at a campus dormitory. Saying he's trying to ``redeem myself,'' he was cleared to play at Colorado just before training camp and quickly moved up the depth chart in a new-look receiving corps that also includes transfers from Southern Cal and Michigan.

Chase Rome, DT, Nebraska: With No. 2 overall pick Ndamukong Suh gone to the NFL, the Cornhuskers have Jared Crick back to cause trouble for offenses. Rome could join him. He graduated early from Columbia (Mo.) Rock Bridge High School in time to go through winter conditioning and spring practice. Now, coach Bo Pelini says, ``he's showing that he has a possibility of being a factor.''

Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma: Lightning fast, Stills joins Joe Powell and Trey Franks as part of a freshman invasion in an Oklahoma receiving corps that was disappointing a year ago. ``It's a completely different attitude. We've got guys that like to have fun and that are aggressive,'' receivers coach Jay Norvell said. ``They don't back off from anybody, they're not intimidated, and I think it's great.'' Stills emerged in the spring as a potential threat and has continued to impress.

Honorable mentions: Baylor WR Levi Woodson, Iowa State RB Duran Hollis, Kansas DE Keba Agostinho, Missouri OLs Mitch Morse and Nick Demien, Nebraska WR Quincy Enunwa, Texas Tech RB Ben McRoy.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

Wwuproar NCAA Football Betting News

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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